'Wolf of Wall Street' to Win Best Picture Oscar, Internet Predicts

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Sunday night winner? Leonardo DiCaprio on the red carpet at the British Academy Film Awards earlier this month.

Image: Joel Ryan/Invision/Associated Press

By Chris Taylor2014-02-28 19:32:49 UTC

If Leonardo DiCaprio and Martin Scorsese bound onto the stage at the Academy Awards Sunday night to accept their gold statuettes for Wolf of Wall Street , you can say you knew it was going to happen — thanks to the Internet.

The Meltwater Group runs an online platform that analyzes billions of news and social media sources every single day. They've been monitoring social chatter about the Oscars for three years now, and find that the amount of buzz a movie or actor gets on Facebook and Twitter in the two months leading up to the Awards ceremony corresponds almost exactly with how the Academy feels about them.

See also: Every Best Picture Winner in Oscar History

In last year's exclusive pregame analysis, Meltwater's predictions were correct in 5 out of 6 of the major categories. They even got the surprise fact that Argo just edged out Lincoln for the coveted Best Picture Oscar. In 2011, when Meltwater looked at just three categories, it correctly predicted two of them.

This year's analysis sees a near-sweep for Wolf of Wall Street, which just edges out American Hustle for Best Picture. Leo DiCaprio has a far larger margin over fellow Best Actor nominee Matthew McConaughey, although we're guessing Leo's insane level of support on social media may be skewing that figure.

See also: Oscars for Best Picture Don't Mean Box-Office Gold

Scorsese has a comfortable margin as Best Director, but his Best Supporting Actor nominee Jonah Hill is losing out to Jared Leto and his compelling portrayal of a transgendered woman in Dallas Buyers Club.

This year's tightest race appears to be between Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) and Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) for Best Actress. The razor-thin margin of social media buzz share is less than a percentage point between them, though — so if there's any category in the office pool where you go with your gut, choose this one (especially given that Amy Adams and Sandra Bullock are both in the 20% range.)

Rounding out the top six categories is Best Supporting Actress. If you believe the pundits, Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) is in a tight race with Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave). If you trust the social media buzz, it isn't even close: Lawrence wins in a walk.

Here's the full list, with the percentage share of the social conversation devoted to each movie, director and actor:

Best Picture

The Wolf of Wall Street: 23.63%

American Hustle: 20.27%

Captain Phillips: 17.79%

12 Years a Slave: 13.51%

Dallas Buyers Club: 6.44%

Her: 5.27%

Gravity: 5.09%

Nebraska: 4.39%

Philomena: 3.61%

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio: 49.72%

Matthew McConaughey: 21.28%

Christian Bale: 16.65%

Chiwetel Ejiofor: 8.01%

Bruce Dern: 4.34%

Best Actress

Meryl Streep: 24.83%

Cate Blanchett: 23.97%

Amy Adams: 23.94%

Sandra Bullock: 21.21%

Judi Dench: 6.05%

Best Director

Martin Scorsese: 35.74%

Steve McQueen: 27.72%

David O. Russell: 15.89%

Alfonso Cuarón: 14.93%

Alexander Payne: 5.73%

Best Supporting Actor

Jared Leto: 51.83%

Jonah Hill: 22.20%

Bradley Cooper: 15.60%

Michael Fassbender: 7.16%

Barkhad Abdi: 3.20%

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lawrence: 65.16%

Lupita Nyong'o: 15.68%

Julia Roberts: 15.60%

June Squibb: 1.95%

Sally Hawkins: 1.61%

Topics: 2014 Oscars, Entertainment, Film