What Took Down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Over Ukraine?

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Smoke rises up at the crash site of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 near the village of Grabovo, Ukraine, on July 17, 2014.

Image: Dmitry Lovetsky/Associated Press

By Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai2014-07-17 18:06:49 UTC

Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was reportedly shot down while carrying carrying 295 people over Ukraine on Thursday. The questions investigators will now grapple with are who took it down — and how.

A Ukrainian government adviser, Anton Gerashenko, said the plane was taken down by a missile fired from a Buk launcher, a surface-to-air missile (SAM) system developed by the former Soviet Union. While it's unclear who shot the missile, it's likely that the plane was indeed taken down, according experts.

See also: What Was Left Behind: Ukraine's Cities After Rebel Retreat

The plane was reportedly flying at an altitude of 10 kilometers (roughly 33,000 feet) near the Ukrainian-Russian border when it was shot down.

Considering the altitude and location, however, "there are a lot of different systems deployed in that area, both in Ukraine and Russia, that could potentially have taken it down," Sim Tack, a security analyst at Stratfor, told Mashable.

The most likely suspect are the Buk missile system, also known as SA-11 or SA-17, which both Russian and Ukrainian forces have been known to use; and the next-generation S-300 and S-400 missiles. And despite the fact that there is no confirmation of the exact locations of these systems, considering the current situation between Ukraine and Russia, it's "very likely that high-end air defense systems are located in that area," Tack said.

9K37 Buk medium-range surface-to-air missiles at a military base near Moscow, Russia. This type of weapons system could have been used in the MH17 disaster.

Image: Mikhail Galustov/Bloomberg

IHS Jane’s Defence Analyst Nick de Larrinaga confirmed Tack's guess, saying that medium-altitude SAM missile systems such as the 9K37 Buk (also known as the SA-11 'Gadfly') or the S-300 (aka SA-10 ‘Grumble) "could all have been used in this scenario."

“Russia and Ukraine have such SAM systems in their inventories,” de Larrinaga said.

A launcher that looked like a Buk missile system was spotted by Associated Press reporters on Thursday, near the eastern Ukrainian town of Snizhne, according to an AP report.

All these systems could hit a plane at that altitude, so the bigger question is; who shot the missile?

Both the Ukrainian government and the pro-Russia separatist rebels denied shooting down any plane after the crash. And whether the rebels could even have access to one of these complex systems remains unclear. Moreover, Tack added, it's one thing to have access to one of these systems, another to operate it. That entails significant training.

In the past few weeks, there have been numerous reports of airplanes being shot down in Ukraine by local rebels, reportedly using so-called manpads, or portable surface-to-air missile systems. These, however, don't have the capability of reaching a plane flying at 10 kilometer, Tack said.

A Twitter account associated with pro-Russian rebels apparently posted a picture of a Buk system before the tweet was deleted — leading some to suspect the rebels might have gotten their hands on one of these systems.

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Topics: Malaysia Airlines, Ukraine , U.S., US & World, World