Typhoon Rammasun Could Be The Strongest Storm to Ever Hit Manila, Philippines

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A Filipino girl walks with an umbrella as preparations are made for incoming Typhoon Rammasun beside Manila's bay, Philippines on Tuesday, July 15, 2014.

Image: Aaron Favila/Associated Press

By Andrew Freedman2014-07-15 17:14:19 UTC

After rapidly intensifying on Monday night, Typhoon Rammasun, which is known as "Glenda" in the Philippines, made landfall near Sorsogon, Philippines, on the southeastern part of Luzon Island, at about 2 p.m. on Tuesday, July 15 local time (2 a.m. ET on July 15 ) as a Category Three storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, with maximum sustained winds of about 125 miles per hour.

If it maintains its intensity for several more hours, which is not a sure bet, it could become the most intense typhoon to make a direct hit on Manila, a flood-prone metro area of 12 million people. The eye of the storm is predicted to be near or over the capital city before noon local time on Wednesday. Thousands have reportedly fled their homes in provinces outside Manila, and the city is preparing for a storm surge of 10 feet or more.

Typhoon Rammasun, whose name means "thunder god" in Thai, plowed into the Philippines as a significantly stronger than the forecast had called for just 12 hours prior, which could have led residents to under-prepare for the storm.

The storm is now slowly weakening from interaction with the mountainous areas of the northern Philippines as it churns west-northwest toward the heavily populated and low-lying Manila metro region. Even as the winds lessen somewhat, the storm will still threaten to cause widespread flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surge there and in other parts of the island of Luzon.

Rainfall projections show that the storm may dump as much as 15 inches of rainfall on parts of the Philippines, which would be the equivalent of a month's worth of rainfall in just one to two days' time.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which is run by the U.S. Air Force and the Navy, has consistently underestimated the typhoon's strength, putting it at a 125 mph storm, in terms of its maximum sustained winds, when it made landfall. The center had forecasted that the storm would make landfall as a Category One or Two storm, with significantly lower impacts in terms of winds and storm surge.

In general, hurricane and typhoon (they are the same type of storm, only named differently based on location) storm intensity forecasts are less accurate than forecasts for their track, and this problem is compounded in the tropical Pacific where "hurricane hunter" aircraft do not fly into storms on a frequent basis like they do in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

Rammasun, a.k.a. Glenda, was intensifying rapidly as it approached landfall, with its central atmospheric pressure — a key metric of storm intensity — dropping from 965 millibars to 945 millibars in just three hours, according to Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, citing figures from the Japanese Meteorological Agency.

Track forecast for Typhoon Rammasun (known as Glenda in the Philippines).

Image: Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Masters' noted Manila's storm history, which suggests the city is in for an unusually intense event. On his blog, Masters said:

Flooding is already occurring in Manila, and flood and wind damage in the city have to potential to make Rammasun one of the top ten most expensive natural disasters in Philippine history. According to NOAA's historical hurricane web page, the strongest typhoon ever to make a direct hit on Manila was Typhoon Angela of 1995, which was a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 when it passed over the city (sustained winds of 90 - 105 mph, according to JTWC's annual report).

Rammasun was the first typhoon to strike the Philippines since Super Typhoon Haiyan hit in November 2013, killing more than 5,000.

After crossing the Philippines, Rammasun is destined for a second landfall in Vietnam or southwest China near Hainan Island on Friday.

Topics: Climate, Glenda, haiyan, Manila, Philippines, Rammasun, typhoon, US & World, World