12 Theories Why Eric Cantor Lost to an Unknown Economics Professor

What's This?

Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (L) and economics professor David Brat (R).

Image: AP Photo/Associated Press

By Brian Ries2014-06-11 17:02:30 UTC

Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his seat in a shocking GOP primary upset for Virginia's 7th congressional district on Tuesday night, with economics professor Dave Brat beating him by 10 percentage points.

Nobody saw it coming. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich called it "a scale eight earthquake."

See also: 15 Most-Followed Politicians on Twitter

Cantor was widely expected to become the next Speaker of the House, so the primary loss will have massive reverberations inside and outside Washington. He's already announced he'll be stepping down as House Republican leader on July 31.

So who, or what, is to blame for the unexpected loss?

Pundits, politicians and the candidates all have their theories about what contributed t Cantor's defeat, so we're rounding them up. We'll keep updating this list throughout the week. If you see one, tag it #ReasonsCantorLost and we'll add it below.

1. Steakhouses

Cantor's primary campaign spent more money at steakhouses over the past year ($168,000) than Brat spent on his entire primary campaign ($122,000).

To be fair, though, it’s doubtful Cantor and friends were eating steak every night.

2. The Hamptons

Cantor spent too much time on the road and in the Hamptons, an anonymous top Republican told Politico's Mike Allen.

3. Laura Ingraham

Ingraham, a conservative talk-radio host aligned with Fox News, has been deemed "instrumental" in Cantor's defeat. She "campaigned vigorously" for Brat when pretty much everyone else had written him off, The Huffington Post's Jack Mirkinson says.

4. The pollster

An internal poll from Cantor's pollster John McLaughlin had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, predicting the majority leader would cruise to victory with a 34-point margin. Cantor, we now know, lost by more than 10 percentage points. That's more like a margin of error of +/- 34.9%.

So, what happened?

McLaughlin's estimate of who was a "likely Republican" voter was "way, way off the mark," wrote the National Journal's Shane Goldmacher.

McLaughlin, of course, has a few other theories...

5. Unexpectedly high turnout

The pollster defended himself in an email to Goldmacher that blamed unexpectedly high turnout. "Primary turnout was 45,000 two years ago," McLaughlin wrote in the email. "This time 65,000. This was an almost 50% increase in turnout."

6. The "Cooter" factor

McLaughlin also blamed former Georgia Rep. Ben Jones, a.k.a. Cooter in The Dukes of Hazzard, for using an open letter to drive Democratic voters on the Internet into Virginia's open primary. "Untold story," McLaughlin told Goldmacher, "is who were the new primary voters? They were probably not Republicans."

Cooter, actor Ben Jones, sits atop one of the 229 hotrods, named the General Lee, used in the show "Dukes of Hazzard."

Image: Steve Helber/Associated Press

7. Immigration

The debate over immigration and amnesty played a big role in this race, with Cantor being accused of going too soft on reform efforts in the House. "Attacks on immigration and amnesty charges from the right in last week hurt," the pollster said. While rejecting the bipartisan immigration reform deal trumpeted last year by Sen. Marco Rubio (R.-Fla.) and friends, Cantor tried to salvage it with a partial compromise that focused on immigrants who arrived in America as kids.

Immigration reform supporters crash the primary-night party of House Majority Leader Cantor, R-Va., after he delivered a concession speech in Richmond, Va., Tuesday, June 10, 2014.

That, it turned out, was too liberal for voters who supported Brat, who calls them not "immigrants" but "illegals." It was, New York's Jonathan Chait wrote, the "biggest issue," and "wipes out whatever tiny shred of a hope that remained for immigration reform."

But then again, maybe this whole immigration blame-game is the media's fault.

8. God

Maybe it was done of the above. Brat suggested attributing the win to a divine power during an interview with Fox News after he claimed victory in the race. "I attribute it to God," Brat said, "so I am humbled that God gave us this win."

9. The Tea Party

This race proves that the Tea Party is not dead. FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten said the race “had a heavy insider versus outsider dynamic,” in which Brat had the backing of local tea party groups and Cantor stood accused of being an establishment outsider. "You can’t get more establishment than being the House majority leader."

10. A "fissure" between Main Street and Wall Street

Dave Brat spoke of a "fissure between Main Street and Wall Street" in his post-victory interview with Fox News, saying, "Dollars don't vote, people do." Cantor raised a heck of a lot of money from huge corporate interests in his race, as companies fought to stay close to the powerful Speaker of the House, giving him a 26-to-1 cash advantage leading up to Election Day.

Politico reports that Cantor had the support of nearly 380 political action committees, "representing almost every major corporate and special interest from all sectors of the economy, including airlines, telecom, energy, food, and manufacturing groups." Brat, meanwhile, raised a little over $200,000. One-third of that money came from small donors. Nothing came from PACs. Didn't matter.

11. A desire for serious ideas

"The American people want to pay attention to serious ideas again," Brat told Fox's Sean Hannity, slamming the partisan bickering that has defined modern Washington. The country, Brat said, needs to get away from "cheap political rhetoric of right and left."

12. House Republicans are hungry

"House Republicans have been eating their young since the Eisenhower era," Politico's Todd S. Purdum wrote, featuring this great quote from the longest-serving member of the House, Rep. John Dingell (D.-Mich.): “Republicans are great for killing off their kings."

Submit your theories on Twitter using the hashtag #ReasonsCantorLost.

SOCIAL MEDIA #s | Create Infographics

Topics: cantor, congress, Eric Cantor, Politics, U.S., US & World